Olivia Chow Wins Toronto Election 2026 — What Her Second Term Could Mean for Housing & Real Estate
by Charanjit (CJ) Gidda, October 27 2026
Toronto has made its choice. Now comes the question that matters to homeowners, buyers, renters and real estate investors: what happens next?
Olivia Chow has been re-elected as Mayor of Toronto, defeating challenger Brad Bradford and securing her first full four-year term after originally becoming mayor in the 2023 byelection.
The latest election-night results gave Chow roughly 54% of the vote, compared with approximately 41% for Bradford. The result was considerably more decisive than some of the final polling had suggested.
But knowing who won is only the beginning of the story.
For Toronto residents, the bigger questions are what Chow’s second term could mean for housing supply, property taxes, the Municipal Land Transfer Tax, renters, landlords, transit, development and the overall Toronto real estate market.
Before Election Day, I compared Olivia Chow and Brad Bradford’s competing housing, tax and affordability proposals. Now that Toronto has voted, let’s look at what could actually happen next.
Toronto Chose Continuity — But What Does That Actually Mean?
Chow’s victory generally means Toronto voters chose to continue the direction City Hall has taken during her first term rather than move toward Bradford’s alternative approach on taxes, housing, public safety and municipal spending.
But continuity does not mean nothing changes.
A full four-year mandate gives Chow more time to continue and potentially expand policies introduced during her first term, particularly around rental housing, transit, affordability and city services.
Toronto City Council changed as well. Seven new councillors were elected while 18 incumbents returned. Bradford will also leave Council after losing his bid for mayor.
That matters because Toronto’s mayor cannot simply implement every campaign promise independently.
Budgets, property taxes, housing programs and many other major decisions still involve City Council. Some large housing and transit initiatives also depend on funding or cooperation from the provincial and federal governments.
The election tells us Toronto’s general political direction. It does not guarantee that every campaign promise will become policy.
The Biggest Real Estate Question: What Happens to Housing?
Housing will likely remain one of the biggest tests of Chow’s second term.
Her approach has placed considerable emphasis on increasing purpose-built rental and affordable housing by using City incentives to make projects more financially viable.
Toronto’s Rental Housing Supply Program can provide eligible projects with financial support including development-related incentives, grants, loans and property-tax relief.
One of the most significant initiatives is the City’s Purpose-Built Rental Housing Incentives program.
The first phase supported almost 8,000 new rental units, including approximately 1,900 affordable homes, with many of those projects beginning construction in 2025 and 2026.
A second phase is intended to support up to another 10,000 rental homes, including at least 2,000 affordable rental units.
The City says more than 50 applications were submitted for the second phase and are being evaluated.
But Does That Mean Toronto Is Getting 10,000 New Homes Immediately?
No.
This distinction is important.
Supporting, approving or beginning construction on housing is not the same thing as completing homes that people can move into.
Large residential projects can take years to move from application to construction to occupancy.
Projects also face challenges including:
- Construction costs
- Interest rates and financing
- Labour and material costs
- Development charges
- Approval timelines
- Infrastructure requirements
- Changing market conditions
The potential benefit of Toronto’s approach is straightforward: if incentives make previously unviable projects financially workable, more rental housing could get built.
More rental supply could eventually give tenants more housing options and reduce some of the pressure created when too many renters compete for too few available units.
But incentives also have a cost because the City may collect less revenue through certain taxes or development-related charges.
Housing announcements matter, but Toronto residents should ultimately judge housing policy by how many homes move from proposal to approval, construction and finally completion.
What Does Chow’s Win Mean for Toronto Property Taxes?
This is probably one of the biggest questions for Toronto homeowners.
Bradford campaigned on a one-year residential property-tax freeze.
Because Bradford did not win the mayoralty, that proposal will not become the new mayor’s budget policy.
That does not automatically mean Toronto homeowners should expect another major tax increase, either.
Toronto’s residential municipal property-tax increases have changed considerably over the past three budgets.
The combined residential increase was 9.5% in 2024, followed by 6.9% in 2025. For 2026, the combined residential property-tax and City Building Fund levy increase fell to 2.2%.
For the average assessed Toronto home used by the City for tax purposes, the 2026 increase represented approximately $91.53 more per year.
Chow has indicated that future increases should generally be closer to inflation after the larger increases earlier in her mayoralty.
But there is an important point homeowners should understand:
The mayor does not determine your property taxes alone.
Property taxes are established through Toronto’s annual budget process, involving the mayor, City Council and Toronto’s overall financial requirements.
What Should Homeowners Watch Next?
The 2027 Toronto budget will provide a much clearer indication of what Chow’s second term actually means for homeowners than an election promise alone.
Factors to watch include:
- Inflation
- Transit funding
- Housing spending
- Infrastructure requirements
- Police and emergency services
- City operating expenses
- Provincial and federal funding
For Toronto homeowners, the 2027 budget may ultimately matter more than any campaign slogan when determining what happens to property taxes next.
What Happens to Bradford’s Land Transfer Tax Rebate?
This could be one of the most important post-election questions for prospective Toronto homebuyers.
Bradford campaigned on providing a full rebate of Toronto’s Municipal Land Transfer Tax on qualifying purchases below $1.1 million.
His campaign estimated the proposal could save an average qualifying buyer approximately $18,000.
With Bradford losing the election, that proposal does not automatically become City policy.
A similar proposal could theoretically emerge through another councillor or future government, but Toronto buyers should not currently plan their purchase assuming Bradford’s proposed rebate will be available.
Why Is Toronto’s Land Transfer Tax Such a Big Deal?
Buyers purchasing property within Toronto generally pay both:
- Ontario Land Transfer Tax
- Toronto Municipal Land Transfer Tax
That makes closing costs in Toronto considerably different from buying a comparable property in many surrounding GTA municipalities.
For buyers already saving for a down payment, legal fees, moving expenses and other closing costs, another significant tax can create an additional financial hurdle.
But there is another side to this debate.
Toronto’s 2026 budget anticipated approximately $850 million in Municipal Land Transfer Tax revenue.
That revenue helps fund City operations and capital investments.
So eliminating or significantly reducing the tax creates an important policy trade-off:
Reducing the Municipal Land Transfer Tax could lower upfront costs for homebuyers, but Toronto would have to replace some of the lost revenue, reduce spending, borrow more or change its financial strategy.
The election may have ended, but the debate over Toronto’s reliance on the Municipal Land Transfer Tax is unlikely to disappear.
What Could Change for Toronto Renters?
Renters were a major part of Chow’s housing platform, and her victory means Toronto is likely to continue focusing on rental supply and building standards.
One important program to watch is RentSafeTO.
RentSafeTO applies to apartment buildings with at least three storeys and 10 units and is intended to ensure building owners meet Toronto’s maintenance and property standards.
The program includes building evaluations, audits, complaint investigations and publicly available building scores.
Toronto has also introduced colour-coded building ratings designed to make the condition of participating rental buildings easier for tenants and prospective tenants to understand.
For tenants, stronger enforcement could mean greater transparency and more accountability when serious maintenance problems occur.
For building owners, stronger enforcement can also mean additional compliance, maintenance, record-keeping and potentially higher operating costs.
This highlights another balancing act Toronto faces.
The City needs safe, properly maintained rental housing while also maintaining an environment where private and institutional investors are willing to own, operate and build rental properties.
Without enough investment, increasing Toronto’s rental supply becomes even more difficult.
What Does Chow’s Victory Mean for Toronto Homebuyers?
Probably less immediately than some headlines may suggest.
Several important things do not change simply because Toronto elected a mayor.
The mayor does not control:
- Bank of Canada interest rates
- Mortgage rates offered by lenders
- Federal mortgage qualification rules
- Ontario’s provincial Land Transfer Tax
- Employment conditions
- Toronto home prices overnight
Municipal government does, however, influence several factors that can affect buyers over time:
- Housing supply
- Zoning and density
- Development approvals
- Property taxes
- Toronto’s Municipal Land Transfer Tax
- Transit
- Infrastructure
- Neighbourhood development
For someone planning to buy a home, the important lesson is simple:
Don’t completely change your housing strategy because of one election result.
Your income, financing, down payment, monthly affordability, available inventory and personal plans will normally have a much greater immediate impact on whether buying makes sense.
Municipal policy becomes more important over the longer term as new housing, infrastructure and taxation decisions are implemented.
What Does the Election Mean for Homeowners and Sellers?
Existing homeowners should pay attention to more than property taxes.
Toronto’s continued push toward greater housing supply and density could gradually reshape individual neighbourhoods.
Issues worth monitoring include:
- Changes to local zoning
- New housing development
- Transit expansion
- Infrastructure investment
- Neighbourhood density
- Property taxes
These changes won’t affect every neighbourhood equally.
A major transit investment or zoning change, for example, could create new development opportunities in one community while creating concerns about congestion, infrastructure capacity or neighbourhood character in another.
That is why homeowners should increasingly pay attention not only to Toronto-wide housing announcements but also to planning decisions affecting their specific neighbourhood.
None of this guarantees that property values will rise or fall.
Real estate remains highly local, and market conditions can vary significantly from one Toronto neighbourhood and housing type to another.
What About Toronto Real Estate Investors and Landlords?
Investors should probably pay particular attention to the next four years.
Important issues include:
- Property taxes
- RentSafeTO requirements
- Rental regulations
- Housing supply
- Purpose-built rental competition
- Development policy
- Transit investment
- Density
- Operating costs
Toronto remains a large and desirable rental market, but that does not automatically make every investment property a good investment.
Investors still need to evaluate:
- Cash flow
- Financing costs
- Property taxes
- Maintenance
- Rental demand
- Vacancy
- Regulatory risk
- Long-term appreciation potential
A property that only works financially if rents rise aggressively or interest rates fall may carry significantly more risk than the purchase price alone suggests.
Toronto Elected a New Council Too — And That Matters
The mayoral result received most of the attention, but Toronto voters also changed City Council.
Seven new councillors were elected and 18 incumbents returned.
Bradford’s departure also creates another change around the Council table.
This matters because Toronto’s mayor has substantial influence, particularly under Ontario’s strong-mayor framework, but major municipal decisions still involve Council.
Housing programs, budgets, taxes, transportation and infrastructure decisions will therefore depend partly on how the newly elected Council works with Chow.
That leads to one of the biggest unanswered questions following the election:
Will the new Council make it easier or more difficult for Chow to implement her second-term agenda?
We won’t know the answer from election night alone.
5 Things Toronto Homeowners and Buyers Should Watch Next
1. Toronto’s 2027 Property Tax Decision
Watch the next municipal budget closely. It will provide the first major indication of whether Toronto can keep residential property-tax increases near inflation while continuing to fund housing, transit, infrastructure and other services.
2. Whether Rental Housing Actually Gets Built
Announcements and approved incentives are only the beginning. Pay attention to construction starts and eventually housing completions. Those numbers tell us whether housing policy is translating into actual homes.
3. Development and Zoning Changes
Toronto’s ability to add housing depends partly on what can be built and how efficiently projects move through the approval process. Changes affecting density and development could have different implications across Toronto neighbourhoods.
4. Toronto’s Municipal Land Transfer Tax
Bradford’s proposed rebate is not becoming mayoral policy, but the cost of Toronto’s MLTT remains an affordability issue for buyers and a significant revenue source for the City. The debate isn’t necessarily over.
5. Transit, Infrastructure and Density
Housing cannot be viewed separately from transportation and infrastructure. As Toronto adds density, residents should watch whether transit, roads, utilities and community services expand alongside it.
Will Chow’s Win Cause Toronto Home Prices to Rise or Fall?
Not by itself.
This is an important misconception to avoid.
No Toronto mayor directly controls home prices.
Real estate prices are influenced by a combination of factors including:
- Bank of Canada interest rates
- Mortgage rates
- Employment
- Consumer confidence
- Household income
- Population growth
- Immigration
- Mortgage qualification
- Available inventory
- Housing supply
- Construction costs
- Federal policy
- Provincial policy
- Municipal policy
City Hall certainly matters because it influences zoning, development approvals, taxes, infrastructure and housing programs.
But anyone claiming that one municipal election automatically means Toronto prices are going up or down is oversimplifying a much more complicated market.
The Bigger Issue: Toronto Still Has a Housing Problem
The election may be over, but Toronto’s housing challenges certainly aren’t.
The city continues to face major questions around:
- Housing affordability
- Rental supply
- Homeownership affordability
- Construction costs
- Development feasibility
- Infrastructure
- Housing completions
This is why the next four years should be judged less by the number of housing announcements and more by measurable results.
How many homes start construction?
How many are actually completed?
Are approval timelines improving?
Is purpose-built rental construction increasing?
What happens to property taxes?
And ultimately, does Toronto become a city where more people can realistically find housing they can afford?
Winning an election is one thing. Delivering more housing is another.
What Should Toronto Residents Do Now?
If you’re a homeowner, monitor property taxes, local planning decisions, neighbourhood development and infrastructure.
If you’re a buyer, focus primarily on your financing, affordability, available inventory and personal circumstances instead of trying to predict the market based on the election.
If you’re a seller, pay attention to local inventory, buyer demand and neighbourhood-level market conditions.
If you’re a landlord, monitor RentSafeTO requirements, property standards and future rental-policy changes.
If you’re a real estate investor, continue watching financing costs, taxes, development policy, rental fundamentals and regulatory changes.
If you’re a renter, watch the City’s rental housing programs, tenant protections and whether promised rental construction actually reaches the market.
Frequently Asked Questions About Olivia Chow’s Re-Election and Toronto Real Estate
Who won the Toronto mayor election in 2026?
Olivia Chow won the 2026 Toronto mayoral election, defeating Brad Bradford and securing a second term as mayor. Chow originally became mayor through Toronto’s 2023 mayoral byelection, meaning the 2026 victory gives her her first full four-year term.
How many votes did Olivia Chow receive?
Latest post-election reporting showed Chow receiving more than 528,000 votes, compared with approximately 401,000 for Bradford, with Chow capturing roughly 54% of the vote. Final certified results should be referenced once Toronto Elections completes the official certification process.
What does Olivia Chow’s re-election mean for Toronto housing?
Chow’s victory likely means Toronto will continue emphasizing purpose-built rental and affordable housing incentives. The City’s current rental-housing program is already working toward supporting up to another 10,000 rental homes, including at least 2,000 affordable units. Actual construction and completion will ultimately determine the program’s impact.
Will Toronto property taxes increase under Olivia Chow?
Future property-tax increases have not yet been determined. Toronto’s 2026 combined residential property-tax and City Building Fund increase was 2.2%. The 2027 rate will be determined through Toronto’s next budget process involving the mayor and City Council.
Is Brad Bradford’s Toronto Land Transfer Tax rebate still happening?
Bradford’s proposed rebate does not automatically become City policy because he did not win the mayoral election. His campaign proposed rebating Toronto’s Municipal Land Transfer Tax on qualifying purchases below $1.1 million. A similar proposal could still theoretically be introduced in the future, but buyers should not currently budget based on receiving Bradford’s proposed rebate.
What is Olivia Chow’s housing plan for her second term?
Chow’s housing direction emphasizes purpose-built rental construction, affordable housing incentives and programs designed to make rental development more financially viable. Toronto’s current Purpose-Built Rental Housing Incentives program is targeting up to 10,000 additional rental homes in its second phase, with at least 2,000 affordable units.
What does Chow’s victory mean for Toronto renters and landlords?
Renters can expect continued attention to rental housing supply and RentSafeTO enforcement. For landlords and building operators covered by RentSafeTO, this can mean continued maintenance, inspection, transparency and compliance requirements. The challenge for Toronto will be improving tenant protections while maintaining investment in rental housing.
Will Olivia Chow’s re-election affect Toronto home prices?
The election alone is unlikely to determine Toronto home prices. Prices are affected by interest rates, mortgage costs, employment, inventory, population, household income, consumer confidence and housing supply. Municipal decisions can influence housing supply, taxes, zoning and infrastructure, but City Hall is only one part of the broader housing market.
Final Thoughts: Toronto Has Chosen. Now Watch What Happens Next.
Toronto voters have given Olivia Chow another term as mayor.
That gives residents greater clarity about the City’s political direction, particularly around rental housing, transit, affordability and municipal services.
But the election result itself won’t solve Toronto’s housing challenges.
Now comes the harder part: turning campaign promises and housing programs into measurable results.
For Toronto homeowners, buyers, renters and investors, the smartest approach isn’t reacting emotionally to one election result.
It’s watching what happens next.
What gets approved? What actually gets built? What happens to property taxes? How does Toronto handle the Municipal Land Transfer Tax? And does the City’s housing supply meaningfully improve?
Those outcomes will ultimately matter much more to Toronto real estate than election-night headlines.
If you’re wondering how Toronto’s changing housing policies, property taxes, interest rates or current GTA market conditions could affect your plans to buy, sell or invest, let’s have a conversation.
