Trade tensions, population shifts raise housing risks across Canada
Signal49 forecast mapped new fault lines for brokers watching provincial economies
Trade uncertainty and a sharp turn in Canada’s population story has already been changing provincial outlooks. That shift is also filtering through to housing and mortgage markets. The trends are highlighted in new research from Signal49 Research, formerly The Conference Board of Canada.
The firm’s latest provincial forecast, finalized before the late‑February escalation of conflict involving Iran, underscores how renewed talks on the Canada–US–Mexico Agreement and lower immigration targets could pull regional growth and housing demand further apart in the years ahead.
“This year will set the stage for the rest of the forecast period, as the fate of Canada’s provincial economies in large part hinges on the renegotiations of the Canada-U.S-Mexico Agreement later this year,” Richard Forbes, principal economist at Signal49 Research, said.
“Additionally, demographic trends will play a central role in labour markets in the coming years. After several years of rapid population increases, sharply lower immigration targets have triggered a slowdown in population growth,” he said.
Resource provinces carry more of the load
Signal49’s baseline showed resource‑heavy provinces leading near‑term growth, helped by stronger commodity prices and project pipelines, and, in some cases, still‑solid in‑migration.
Saskatchewan is expected to post 2.0% real GDP growth in 2026 on the back of potash and uranium investment, while Alberta’s economy is also projected to expand by 2.0%, supported by energy output and comparatively robust population gains.
Newfoundland and Labrador, buoyed by oil production, was forecast to grow 1.8% in 2026. British Columbia’s LNG‑linked exports are expected to lift GDP by 1.7%. Ontario and Quebec trailed, with forecast growth of 0.8% and 0.7% respectively, amid tariff headwinds and weaker migration.
Population rethink meets a stubborn housing shortfall
The demographic shift flagged by Signal49 landed in a market that has still not closed Canada’s structural housing gap. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation estimated the country would need about 3.5 million additional homes by 2030, beyond business‑as‑usual construction, to restore affordability.
At the same time, Ottawa’s push to reduce temporary residents to roughly 5% of the population by 2027, and lower immigration levels overall, is expected to cool rental and entry‑level demand in some hubs, even as national population growth likely remains close to 1% in 2026.
www.mpamag.com/ca/mortgage-industry/industry-trends/trade-tensions-population-shifts-raise-housing-risks-across-canada/567409
