CMHC: Cities with problematic housing market conditions
The Housing Market Assessment publication for Canada evaluates the extent to which there is evidence of problematic housing market conditions in selected Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs). Results are updated on a quarterly basis.
- This quarterly release of the Housing Market Assessment (HMA) provides updated results that evaluate the extent to which there is evidence of problematic housing market conditions 3 in 15 Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs).
- The HMA analytical framework considers four factors to assess the evidence of problematic housing market conditions: overheating; acceleration in the growth of house prices; overvaluation; and, overbuilding.
- Overvaluation and overbuilding are the most prevalent problematic conditions observed across the 15 centres covered by the HMA. Overvaluation is detected in 8 centres while overbuilding is detected in 7.
- The evidence of overbuilding has increased since the previous assessment in Calgary, Saskatoon, Regina, and Ottawa due to either higher vacancy rates, high inventory of new and unsold units, or a combination of both. As more centres are now showing problematic overbuilding conditions, the necessity of inventory management is more pronounced.
- The analytical framework detects strong evidence of problematic conditions in Toronto, Calgary, Saskatoon, and Regina.
- Since the previous assessment, the overall level of evidence of problematic conditions detected by our framework has moved from moderate to strong for Calgary due to the detection of overvaluation and overbuilding.
- The overall level of evidence of problematic conditions detected by our framework for Toronto remains strong due to the detection of price acceleration and overvaluation.
- In Regina and Saskatoon, there remains strong evidence of problematic conditions, reflecting detection of overvaluation and rising evidence of overbuilding.
- In Winnipeg, the evidence of problematic conditions has been lowered from strong to moderate. This is due to the evidence of overvaluation being reduced with improving economic and demographic fundamentals.
- The analytical framework detects moderate evidence of problematic conditions in Montréal, Edmonton, Ottawa, Winnipeg, and Québec.
- Nationally we detect moderate evidence of overvaluation, reflective of a variety of price conditions across the country with some CMAs showing more signs of overvaluation than others. CMHC’s framework also detects evidence of other problematic conditions such as overheating, acceleration in house prices, and overbuilding of varying degrees across CMAs.
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